Will China become the centre of the world economy? | FT financial times

by noithatSDFGH



세계 경제는 미국과 유럽에서 아시아로 이동하고 있습니다. FT의 글로벌 중국 편집자 James Kynge와 FT 경제 해설자 Martin Sandbu는 중국이 글로벌 상거래를 지배할지 아니면 세계 경제가 지역적 경계를 따라 분할될 수 있는지에 대해 논의합니다. #china #chinaeconomy 체험판 1개: ► 커뮤니티 탭에서 더 많은 이야기를 확인하거나 동영상을 추천하세요. ► 팟캐스트 듣기: ► Instagram에서 팔로우하기: .

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47 comments

pm m 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

Death of China should be the beginning for good globality.

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pm m 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

Death of China should be the beginning for good globality.

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Hoang Nguyen Dinh 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

Looks like an introduction of a new Lord of the Rings real world series

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Nick M 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

Didn't know the Financial Times was owned by the Chinese Communist Party, while James Kynge cheers on the CCP's advancement

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Paul Kent 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

Only Ponzi schemes grow like China has grown over the last 40 years.

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David Ebert 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

Why are countries investing in a nation that tried to destroy the world? China needs to be isolated-again

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Truth Prevails 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

China is doing things no one tried. Firstly they did not use slaves or colonise weaker countries. After they became stronger, they are helping their neighbours. Richer neighborhood means a bigger economy, more trade. What others like is that they tell you what they can do without expecting you to change into something defined by them. That finds resonance in many countries. Problem is the West can only compete by promising to be nice as well. But they are too good to be nice to others

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Jean-Pierre Thiran 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

…lol…how much china paid FT to produce this?…when china is falling apart like a house of cards!…a ponzi squeme, mass spying, expoitation of slave work, insane polution…and more

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Amazing Fernando 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

CHINA IS COLLAPSING
DON'T LIE

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juharee lopez 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

globalization is a poison to poor countries,

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Roman Bartan 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM Reply
Sparky Runner 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

With the kind of weak government leadership America has been presenting to the world the last 25 years while China has been expanding it's influence, it should be no wonder China will replace the unorganized United States as the major world power over incompetence.

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Antonio gerardo Giampaolo 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

Outstandig job. I agree with the idea that PRC will be more a strong regional leader than a worldwide superpower since its condition of a genocide dictatorship with high levels of slave work is not well regarded by democracies

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J4vURmywUMCcsCnm Cyberpunk-Music 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

How is Globalisation Vs Regionalistin over Centralisation over Regionalisation? In your Center "Germany", they cannot get an Airport done in time anymore and, if you would have understood the Regional part, you would called Europe a Region rather than the Germans a center. FT once killed me with a headline in the weekend magazine to just buy the most expensive ingredients to cook the best food, forgetting about overcooking and balancing ingredients appropriately. How did these guys make it into the economic part, please?

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Peter Wulff 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

在中國的 14 億人口中,大多數是世界上最優秀的人才——成為世界第一的人不需要其他任何東西。中國在許多方面已經是世界第一,幾十年後它將在所有重要領域成為第一。中國勢不可擋!

Among China's 1.4 billion inhabitants are the majority of the world's best brains – little else is needed to become the world's supreme #1. China is in many respect already the world's #1, and in a few decades it will be #1 in all realms of importance. China is unstoppable!

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EL BARNAOUI MOHAMMED 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

Well we don't want China to be the centre of the global economy

We want a united global worldwide economy

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DrScopeify 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

Evergrande crashed after China set debt limit policies so this is all planned to occur, nothing here is by the wind. Companies all over the spectrum in China are being cracked down and taken over by the CCP from tech companies to factories to banks just every secotr. Gaming and entertainment is being shut down, slogans of morals and prudence are hanging everywhere. Foreign companies make it sound like they are leaving but no, they are being kicked out. China is working to remove all foreign dependencies. So what is going on??? In my personal opinion it is pretty clear that China is prepare the ground work to clear out their entire system to prepare for a full war time economy and not just any but that for total war. Who ever produces the most always wins and at this time that is easily China. No country in the world can touch what China is able to produce.

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DrScopeify 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

Evergrande crashed after China set debt limit policies and this is just the beginning. Tech companies are being cracked down and taken over by the CCP. Gaming and entertainment is being shut down, slogans of morals and prudence are hanging everywhere. Foreign companies make it sound like they are leaving but no, they are being kicked out. China is working to remove all foreign dependencies. So what is going on??? In my personal opinion it is pretty clear that China is prepare the ground work to clear out their entire system to prepare for a full war time economy and not just any but that for total war. Who ever produces the most always wins and at this time that is easily China. No country in the world can touch what China is able to produce.

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Laurie MacPherson 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

Doubts

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Sainur Rahman 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

Martin that doughnut doesn't want China to be a great global economy

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Andrew McKay 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

The Globalist made the problem and now you
Will be killed by them by stealth they have the upper hand now.

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Andrew McKay 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

Morons talking about a ship that's already sailed they will change the games you stupid fools at the FT

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Andrew McKay 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

It's called national socialism your behind the times, you stupid Boomer,s

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Andrew McKay 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

Boomer,s are going to loose their arss and there money

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Andrew McKay 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

The woke istablishmant are going to loose and shows

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L B 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

Yes

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Nicholas Mwangangi 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

This video is basically saying, China bad because not white

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J Taylor 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

Chinese 'growth' rates are as credible & trust-worthy as their financial accounting standards imo.

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DanielPasten 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

Nope

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Faithful Lee 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

The judgement day is coming, many people don't realize we are all living in a scary economic time bomb. When interest rate goes up, it will be desiaster

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Angie S 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

The real purpose of globalization is for the big corporations and conglomerates of the West to exploit under developed countries for their cheap labour and cheap land. Breaking globalization could be a good thing for these poor countries to stop letting the West sucking out their blood.

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Erick Robertson 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

Interesting video but it makes no mention of a significant reason behind China's economic rise… US policy of Most Favored Trade Nation Status and capitalism with its eager embrace of the lowest labor cost possible. Deng wanted to raise his country, Xi wants to consolidate and commit to a nationalism for China that makes it preeminent on the world stage and reduce her neighbors to "Mare Nostrum."
China by its size and population IS and SHOULD BE a country of importance but when you examine the words of her leaders and their actions you come up with a different perspective. China does not embrace capitalism, it controls it for the reason of the state.

China has an enormous intelligence system at home and abroad. There is a reason for this.
They build islands and say they won't militarize them, then do.
They pledge a degree of autonomy for Hong Kong for a set period of time, then revoke it.
The Chinese Constitutuon guarantees "freedom of religious belief" but only so long as the state views you as not a threat to public order. Flexible interpretation I'm sure.
They build internment camps to house their own people and declare them to be educational and vocational in nature. A familiar excuse from humanity's common past.
The copy everything. Everything. Even your Microsoft account emails.
They threaten and rattle their sabers at any state that does fold to them.
They are committed to maintaining North Korea as a wedge in Asia, regardless of the suffering of North Koreans and against the hopeful future of reunification.
Who really knows where Covid 19 came from but you certainly will not get any help from China in settling that question.

Future eonomic center of the world FT? It well may be but I'm hoping against it.

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George Siew 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

This depiction is very dishonest. It implies that China was poor because it was a socialist country to begin with and that's what made it poor or that it followed very poor policies that made it poor then it somehow corrected to better policies. Both of these assumptions are false.

To understand the actual path of economic development of China it is crucial to understand the actual origins of China. The key questions are; How did it do in history? When and why did it fall behind? What changed that lead it to embark on its current streak of rapid growth? How does this growth rank in history? Then lastly we can ask where might the current trajectory go to?

Chinese economy was always a large portion of the global economy from the days when humans adopted agriculture making up anywhere from 1/5 to 1/3 of the global economy. In the 1800s during the decline of the last Feudal Chinese Dynasty, the Chinese began their decent from the richest part of the world to the poorest part of the world. Over the 150 years from 1800 to 1950, Chinese GDP did not grow while Western Europe grew at a continuous steady pace for that entire period which was the first time such sustained growth has occurred in human history. This growth started with the industrial revolution in England but then leaped to continental Europe exemplified by Germany and then to the United States. During 1800 to 1950, China was partially colonialized and became completely balkanized after the fall of the Qing Dynasty. As is typical of countries that are colonialized and balkanized in that period, China went into prolonged economic stasis with 0 economic growth. This happens because virtually all excess capital is extracted by Western Europeans or destroyed in civil wars and wars against foreign occupation. The Western Europeans practice a form of economic domination on the lands they colonized whereby all excess capital is extracted and none is left behind to fund local growth and by blocking any technology transfer as much as possible. Therefore countries such as China or India had virtually no capital investment or technological improvement for 150 years or so. Correspondingly they had 0 economic growth for those same 150 years.

In 1950, China finally removed all foreign occupation and reversed the balkanization of the country (except for Taiwan and Hong Kong) that was achieved by the European and Japanese colonizers. Over the next 30 year despite being locked out of most of the global economy China was able to grow modestly with growth on par in many years with the soviet union and still faster than the growth rate of the European economies during the 1800-1950s. China was able to obtain some technology transfers from the Soviet Union to start the process of urbanization and modernization. Being a very poor country with no access to affordable lending, China scrimped and saved its way to invest in itself. This growth while faster than the average long run growth of the Europeans was still painfully slow and would require hundreds of years to catch up to the rich economies. This frustration and the many difficult times brought on by natural disasters lead China to an unstable political climate culminating in the death of Mao and the subsequent soft civil war that ran through China known as the cultural revolution.

Finally by the late 1970s the Chinese government settled the soft civil war and decided on a change of strategy. Rather than develop through autarky, China moved to develop through mercantilism drawing upon the lessons of the Europeans and the Japanese who all developed through mercantilism. The speed of the Japanese development through mercantilism was particularly instructive and inspirational. Mercantilism held out the hope for China to develop into a rich country within a lifetime rather than taking hundreds of years. At this time China ran into some very good fortune. The stagnation of the United States and it's fall into stagflation due to it's inability to limit its profligacy in the face of its economic stagnation lead the United States to look for a quick fix for its problem. One that will not force it to make fundamental changes to its society and economy. Piggy backing on this and promising to slay inflation for the world with its highly organized and disciplined labor force that was larger than the entire labor force of the west combined, China made its way into the world economy as the low cost manufacturer of anything anyone needs.

In 1980 China started its march up the economic ladder with the least capital and technology intensive industries because they had no capital and no technology. By saving from money earned through exports and getting technology transfers through interactions with more advanced economies, China started to grow at practically the fastest pace possible for any human society. In a short 40 years since then Chinese Per capita GDP has gone from around $100 RMB to over $70k RMB with exchange rates to the dollar only changing slightly over that time. Since the 1950s Urbanization rate went from around 10% to around 60% now with still 30% more to go before saturation. Industrialization from from near nil to the largest industrial base by far in the world. Average educational attainment from being illiterate to the most recent generation of kids being projected to have higher education attainment in their life than those in many rich countries. To put China's growth in perspective it has industrialized, urbanized and educated itself at 2 to 3 times the speed of the fastest growing European Societies in history and also significantly faster than any other Asian Nation since it started from a much lower base.

As for where China is going to go, there are a lot of myths and wishful thinking. The middle income country trap simply doesn't apply to China like it never applied to Europe, the US, Japan, South Korea or Taiwan. To have such a block to development there has to be some significant social hurdles against industrialization, urbanization and population educational attainment. With China these 3 critical pillars have already happened. It is just a matter of time to collect all the fruits from these already planted harvests. 90% urbanization is going to happen in 20-30 years. Universal post secondary education attainment is going to happen with the latest generation of 16 year old's. Industrialization is already done. Chinese savings today can fund any level of investment that they want. Any infrastructure they want, airports, hospitals, highways, ports, power stations, universities they can have. Trying to block them now is like trying to shut the door on someone when they are already in your house.

So the answer to the questions posed in this video is. Of course China is going to become the center of the global economy. This isn't something that the west can block short of world war 3. Even if you made China retreat to an autarky now. It will still fully industrialize, fully urbanize and become highly educated in another decade or two. At this point forcing China to become an autarky will hurt the west as much or if not more than it hurts China. What will the west do for all the highly skilled and disciplined blue collar labor that it consumes today? There is no untapped reserve of that kind of labor anywhere else in the world. Pushing China out will force the west to consume 20-30% less labor than they are used to. Capital substitution on that scale will be obscenely expensive if not outright impossible.

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Simon Chang 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

All things in Chainar is fake. My 5G phone never connected to 5G network in BJ, GZ, SZ or SH. High Speed Rail loses 8% of national GDP, so only communist countries can keep it running, but how much longer? BTW technology in HSR is mostly German and Japanese. You guys give more credits than PRC deserves.

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john hazelgrove 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

Yet China's economy is failing – massive debt, failing companies, foreign manufacturing moving out – pity the people who live in poverty under this dictatorship.

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Samuel Liu 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

dec 1995 i took a two night or maybe slow train from pek-can midnight- 2 days later afternoon

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Galen Haugh 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

No, China's economy will collapse!
Why?
Japan is spending almost a $trillion to pull all supply chains out of China, which number approximately 5,000 companies! That will drop China to its economic knees. And after most other countries do the same with most of their supply chains, China won't have an econony anymore!
Serves them right for foisting a pandemic on the world and stealing the US election!!!!!

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什么样子世界 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

China just got drunk in past 150 years.

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Vicasso Fourie 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

A really informative video, thanks. Can't believe it is a Financial Times video.

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Graham Mitchell 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

China is just not popular

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David Lumley 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

Prediction: China will hit a major finacial collapse, the rest of the world is already wanting to cease trading with it because of 'chinavirus' (spelt wrong on purpose because Trump said it and he can't spell) It's enormous population will suffer and finally replace communism with some sort of democracy capitalism.

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Aya B 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

BRI anyone?

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Au Liaꪜ 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

China is nothing but a backstabber.

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Desmond Sun 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

China will not want to be the dominant power at this stage because China's per capita is only $10,000, as compared to US's $60,000. China's priorities are on stability and improving living standard. China may not mind to be a big brother to ASEAN, South Asia except India, Central Asia and Africa. With stability, these are targeted high growth markets with high potential for investments. And these markets appreciate the most the very successful formula of Made in China. These regions may lead to another billion plus people market without India, with a per capita of $10,000 plus. A market the same size as China. China is a series of very long term planning, creating wealth in others, to sustain own growth. To be the richest among the rich is a lot more superior than to be richest among the poor. Made in China.

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Jacob Rason 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

Western world are now collapsing

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Святослав Геращенко 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

On chanell translate this 20 minutes after start timecod. Intresting belarus analitics:
https://youtu.be/IIuIHNqWn4E?t=1500
For all american and euro blogers!!!

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Christian 19/10/2021 - 2:37 PM

Wow that guy’s voice sounds so american

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